By Chris Emrick
What a wild week this is turning into. I’ve held off writing this as long as I could. The news just seems to keep rolling in and by this time tomorrow some of this may have changed significantly. As with past weeks, we’ll explore a few games that I’m looking at getting massive exposure to and then a few one off rankings.
Chargers @ Bills -4.5 O/U 52.5
Josh Allen ($7600) is looking like he’ll be the most owned QB on the slate. In the past, we’ve avoided spots like this with him and it’s cost us. Is he in a great spot? Yes. With ownership around 13%, it isn’t the worst chalk we’ve had to eat. One of the nice things about stacking Allen is that we’ve got a pretty condensed skill position tree for the bills. With John Brown going on IR it stands to reason that Cole Beasley ($5500) be the primary beneficiary of those targets. The times Brown hasn’t been able to suit up we’ve seen Beasley have some pretty big games. The other player that might be worth looking at is Gabriel Davis ($3000). Of Course, Stefon Diggs ($7600) will be a great play, he was regardless of Brown’s status. 20% ownership does give me pause, but the floor is attractive. The Chargers Defense has been a gift for opposing offenses having given up an average of 31 points since week 3. The only concern for the passing game is that they’ve limited WR production over the past three weeks, which had been an issue earlier in the year. Zack Moss ($4800) and Devin Singletary ($4200) are both cheap enough that you can include them in a stack. I’m not going out of my way for either of them, but Moss especially does have the upside that we look for.
On the other side, the Defensive woes for the Chargers have been something that has fueled this amazing rookie campaign from Justin Herbert ($7200). The Bills have given up monster games to quite a few QB’s and Herbert’s floor has been around 21 points this season. The challenge I have is figuring out where to go. The RB situation is cloudy with Austin Ekler being activated off IR. I don’t expect him to come in and have a full workload, but any work he gets comes at the expense of the others and vice versa. The ceiling isn’t all that high. What is high is the price tag for Keenan Allen ($8000). We knew it was going to happen and quite frankly it took a lot longer than I had expected. The price is one thing, but he looks like he’s going to be in the top 3 for Wide Receiver ownership. Mike Williams ($5000) and Hunter Henry ($4800) might be easier fits as we’re going to need some salary to pay for a few studs on this slate.
I’m going to have a fair amount from this game but I’m likely to stay low on Allen. The ownership, the price, and the projections seem to agree.
Raiders @ Falcons +3 O/U 54
I’d love to see Derek Carr ($5700) play against the rest of the league the way that he plays against the Chiefs. This Falcons team despite small improvements has still been a playground for QB’s in fantasy. Allowing 21 or more points in all but one game Carr is my favorite play on the slate. Coming in at 4% ownership makes it all the better. Josh Jacobs ($7200) is pricey, his 30% projected ownership is disgusting. The Falcons have given up tons of fantasy points but most of that has gone to wide receivers. I much prefer Nelson Agholor ($4900) at 1% ownership or any of the other wideouts. Darren Waller ($6000) should be the highest owned TE and top 20%. This play is easier for me to stomach as opposed to Jacobs. The Falcons had major issues early in the year defending tight ends and even though they’re better now, it’s simply in context. There wasn’t any way they were going to give up 30 fantasy points to Tight Ends all year long.
Take your pick on the other side of this game. With Julio Jones ($6500) questionable, Calvin Ridley ($7100) should be a slam dunk play. Missing a few games with injury has kept his ownership low 11%. As bad as the Falcons have been, Las Vegas has had its share of games where it’s allowed 40+ points to opposing teams. Russel Gage ($4800) and Olamide Zaccheaus ($3800) is worth plugging in if Jones misses the game. Brian Hill ($4000) will start for the injured Todd Gurley and provides some salary relief. He will be above 20% ownership but he makes it a lot easier to play Dalvin Cook ($9500)
Those will be the two games I’m looking to stack. Outside of the players mentioned here are some additional players that will find their way into my lines.
QB
Daniel Jones ($5500)
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5500)
Patrick Mahomes ($8000)
RB
Kareem Hunt ($5600)
Dalvin Cook ($9500)
James Robinson ($6300)
Jordan Wilkins ($4000)
Nyheim Hines ($4600)
Wayne Gallman ($5000)
WR
Tyler Boyd ($5000)
Keelan Cole ($3600)
Justin Jefferson ($6300)
Antonio Brown ($5700)
DeAndre Hopkins ($8100)
Jamison Crowder ($5400)
TE
Travis Kelce ($7000)
Kyle Rudolph ($2800)
Evan Engram ($4500)
DEF
Rams ($3700)
Browns ($3100)
Saints ($3800)
Giants ($3200)