by Jonny Danger
Tipsy Picks Week 10
Extreme Values. Miracle dependent plays. One-off shots off the beaten path!
You’ll need a few beers or a stiff pour of bourbon to stomach these picks…
I am going to concentrate on just a guy or two for each position. Have real conviction in my craziness…
Tipsy QBs
Ryan Tannehill $6,100 @ BAL (0.7%)
He is literally the least projected owned QB besides Jake Luton this week. Baltimore is indeed a tough defense, but over 3 of the last 4 games they are giving up 24+ points a game, and not once this year have they faced a running game as capable as Derrick Henry. All that to say they will have to focus that D on Henry and even with the struggles of late Tannehill is a top 10 QB on the year, and at this ownership and the weapons around him you better believe he’ll find a lineup or two in my GPP entries this week.
Under Owned Favorites:
Aaron Rodgers – who’s more likely to let you down, A-Aron or Indy D…
Tipsy RBs
Jonathan Taylor $5,800 vs GB (0.7%)Go back and look how the GB defense has been shredded by the running game. People will have recency bias against Taylor for his lack of success and for Hines for his blow up games in 2 of their last 3. However, remove the Kamara game without Thomas, and the passing RBs have done squat against this team averaging only 3 catches a game for 28 yards per game and only 1 TD to the passing back all year. It’s the pure runner that is thrashing the Pack and the only way you keep Rodgers and Adams from beating you is to run the ball and control the clock. In the 3 games Hines blew up in he only ran the ball a total of 24 times for 126 yards and 1 TD combined in all 3 games. This is the game Jonathan Taylor gets back into the mix in a big way.
Rex Burkhead $4,600 @ HOU (0.9%)
Harris is getting a ton of love, and I whole-heartedly agree, I need him big in seasonal this week. There are issues though. First off, he carries an injury tag for his chest/ankle. Secondly, Sony Michel is back, who went off for 117 yards rushing last time he was on the field. Michel’s presence hurts Harris, and Cam gets his runs too, so I am pivoting to Burkhead. He seems to have supplanted White in the passing game, is always on the field around the endzone and is the back that complements the option plays with Cam the best. Last time I did a segment on Rex, I deleted it from the Tipsy video and he had 3 TDs. Lets see it again!
***I wanted to get to Samaje Perine, but I decided not to crack open the Bourbon this morning to get there…
Other Cost Saving Options:
*Sony Michel – Terrible run defense and at basement price of $4k…
*Melvin Gordon – I kinda like the idea of Denver favoring the Rushing attack this week. Wear out that Miami defense on the road at altitude. $5,100 is about right here.
Tipsy WRs
Greg Ward $4,000 @ CLE (0.1%)
The forgotten man in conversations about the Eagles. In 7 of 9 games he’s had 5,6,6,7,7 and 11 targets. The field is muddy with Jeffery back and Raegor playing well and Fulgham having a breakout year, but through it all you have a guy as consistent as you could want for $4k and under 1% owned. The Browns have been pretty good against the run of late and the Eagles will need to keep throwing to win this game.
A.J. Green $3,600 @ WSH (1.1%)
Dude gets between 5-10 targets a game… All he needs is that TD and he triples value. He is almost a lock for me in at least 20% of my GPPs at this price. I think Burrow ends up throwing 45+ times and Green will get a shot at double digit targets again this week.
Other Cost Saving Options:
Rashard Higgins – Still the #2 in this offense and I think more talented than Jarvis
Corey Davis – way too talented to be under 5k and under 1% owned
Salary Saving TEs
Logan Thomas- $3,300 Cinci can’t stop any TE
Adam Trautman- $2,500 Total punt play, but Josh Hill and Taysom Hill are both out of the picture…
Defense
Denver vs Miami $2400
Miami @ Denver $3400
If you wanna go low owned…
Green Bay $2,800 @ IND Rivers is way overdue for a Pick 6