by Chris Emrick
When we first looked at the pricing for this slate, it was very strange. Add to that the news that we got yesterday coming out of New Orleans and I’m just glad I’m not playing over on Fanduel.
Atlanta vs New Orleans (-3.5) O/U 49.5
Let’s just get this game out of the way. There are some very attractive pieces involved in this game but to play some of them you have to take some leaps of faith. The reports coming out of the Saints camp yesterday was that Taysom Hill, not Jameis Winston would be the starter. The report even went so far as saying that there wouldn’t be any offensive packages for Winston. Later after that report, Sean Payton came out and said that it wasn’t true. Who do you believe? It stands to reason if Taysom Hill does play and is indeed the starter playing all the snaps he would be a great play at $4800 simply for his rushing upside alone. This also would make me look closer at Alvin Kamara’s $9200 as we know rushing QB’s tend to help running backs numbers. To make it a bit more complicated there were reports that Kamara injured his ankle, but he has gone on record and said that he’s fine and will play. So then additionally what does this mean for Michael Thomas $7300? Do we think that Taysom Hill wouldn’t in fact still throw to him? What if this is all a ruse and Jameis is going to play significant snaps and then in turn what does that mean for Thomas?
On the other side we’re all well aware of the weapons on the other side of the ball. Matt Ryan $6300 has both Julio Jones $7500 and Calvin Ridley $7000 this week to throw to. The only problem is that the Saint’s defense has been outstanding over the last few weeks really limiting production from opposing offenses. This tandem is certainly better than most, and if there has been a weak spot for the Saints it has been in WR points allowed.
For me, this isn’t a game that I’m looking to full-stack. Go right ahead if you feel like this is going to be a huge shoot out, but I’d rather take a one-off or two pieces and put my full stack elsewhere. I’m going to take a chance on Michael Thomas and look to pair him with one of the Falcons wide receivers. I’m leaning toward Ridley as he is cheaper and should drawer easier to beat coverage. The risk of re-injury is there as is with anyone coming back, but not enough to detour me.
Ridley/Thomas
Dallas vs Minnesota (-7) O/U 47.5
In his first few games, Andy Dalton $5300 was terrible. There isn’t any way around it. This Vikings secondary is one that throughout the season we’ve looked to target and that’s who Dalton gets to throw against. Recently the Vikings have been better, around league average in terms of points allowed to WR’s and their DVOA against the pass is 11th. Context is required as the just came off back to back games where they played the Lions and Bears, not exactly two teams that are lighting it up through the air. So sure, this game has flaws in terms of its a possibility of being a shootout, but almost every game does. Even the ones that we think are a slam dunk to shoot out like the Seahawks/Cardinals game this past Thursday don’t always pan out the way we think they will. Dalton isn’t a terrible QB, he made it to the playoffs multiple times and had some really fantastic seasons and games for the Bengals. I find it hard to believe that he ends up looking as bad as he did previously with additional practice with the first string. With weapons like Amari Cooper $5400, Michael Gallup $3700, and CeeDee Lamb $5000. You have a game stack that is super inexpensive and will allow you to run it back with Thomas/Ridley or even Jones if that’s the direction you want. I’ve been out on these guys recently, but the price and situation have made me rethink that. The hardest part is figuring out who will have the large week. Cooper seems the safest and Gallup has the most attractive price. I think any combination of the two will be fine and have comparable ownership.
On the other side of things, you have Kirk Cousins $6200 going against a defense that has been very giving to opposition offenses. What was a fairly easy decision at the start of the year on who to pair him with has become a bit more muddied. The emergence of Justin Jefferson $6000 has had an impact on Adam Thielen’s $6300 value. The two don’t tend to go off together, and neither of them seems to have steady target numbers. This is due largely to Dalvin Cook $9000 and his monster usage. I’m not looking to play any more guessing games with wideouts in this game. Yes, they’re both viable but not together, but I’d rather use the massive savings I’m getting elsewhere and come up to Cook. His upside is easily matched, and he’s won folks a fair amount of money this year. Even at his price he’s paying off the expected value for cash over half the time, and had tournament-winning upside 25% of the time. Sometimes you do need the raw points.
Dalton+Cooper+Gallup— Cook
Pittsburgh vs Jacksonville (+10.5) O/U 46
Now we’re starting to get off the beaten path with some less obvious spots. The first thing to know here is parts of this game will be highly owned, but to what extent the stacks will be is what I question and hence where I find the leverage. For all the shit I’ve talked about Big Ben $6700 and his arm strength this year he’s been a fantastic QB in real life and fantasy. Taking pages out of other older QBs like Brady and Brees he’s found ways to be hyper efficient in the short/medium passing game. Not relying on the big play, but instead allowing his trio of wide receivers to do the heavy lifting. For all the attention that’s paid over to the Vikings defense and their secondary Jacksonville has been much worse. Only the Lion’s WR’s scored a combined total of less than 45 in their last 6 games. The first piece here and the one that likely comes with the most ownership is Diontae Johnson $5900. For some reason, he’s still the cheapest of the three wide receivers but he’s the one that when healthy has the largest market share of the targets. In the games that he played his full snap load, he’s seen targets of 11,10,15,13, and 10. All double digits. The risk of course is that he’s left multiple games with an injury. I’m willing to risk it though. Chase Claypool’s $6100 has also started to see his market share rise in this offense posting back-to-back games with double-digit targets. He has an incredible knack for finding the endzone already scoring 9 times and having two multiple touchdown games. The added use as a runner in the red zone and the additional work that he sees if the aforementioned Johnson goes down makes him one of my favorite plays of the week. He correlates poorly with the other two WR’s so I see him more as a one-off than part of a larger stack. JuJu Smith Schuster $6400 on the other hand correlates very well with Eric Ebron’s $4000 and Diontae. After a slow start to the year, we’ve seen JuJu’s production start to rise over the last four weeks scoring against both the Bengals and Cowboys. The entire passing attack has seen an uptick at the cost of James Conner $6600 who has failed to reach value in the last four games.
It can be a scary thing looking across from a defense like Pittsburgh. There are some options and players to consider. James Robinson $6400 has run for 109,99,119 in his last three games with attempts of 23,25, and 22. To cap that off he’s also been targeted in the passing game 6,2, and 5 times in those games. The only problem is this Steelers defense has only allowed 18+ fantasy points to a rushing attack three times this year. Once to Denver 18.4, The Eagles, 24.20, and The Ravens 30.8. If we’re playing Robinson as the run back then we’re looking to match or beat the Eagles/Ravens scores. The Eagles did that off the back of a huge run for TD by Miles Sanders and The Ravens are a different story altogether. It’s not unreasonable to roster Robinson, he just isn’t at the top of my list here.
I’m far more interested in the Wide Receivers in this game. While The Steelers have been stingy against the run they’ve been giving to passing attacks allowing almost 40 points to teams over the season. DJ Chark $5700 is the clear cut number one in this offense and the best pass catcher they have. This season hasn’t been kind to Chark as he’s only exceeded value two times. Both of those games were explosions and at minuscule ownership. This makes him an extremely attractive, but volatile play as the run back. Chris Conley $3000 is still priced at the minimum and has had back to back games with 8 targets, playing 75% and 90% of the snaps in those games. Luton seems to feel comfortable throwing to him and at that price, it’s super easy to fit some of our studs mentioned earlier. Keelan Cole $3800 is another inexpensive option. He seemed to have developed something with Minshew at the start of the year before his targets fell off. Last week was a monster week for him scoring not just threw the air, but on a kick return. That is the added upside you get with Cole, I’m just not betting on him doing it again this week. It’s rare enough to get the return touchdown, but to get them on back to back weeks? I’m good, I’m not that lucky.
Ben+JuJu+Diaonte —— Chark or Conley
Cincinnati vs Washington (-1) O/U 46.5
The Washington Defense has had its moments this year. After shutting down the Giants and Cowboys they were feeling pretty good about themselves. That came crashing down when they were lit up by the same Giants and Lions in the last two weeks. Joe Burrow, $5500 is someone that has shown massive upside failing to pay off this price only two times. Last week against the Steelers and Week 5 against the Ravens. Two teams that I hold in a bit of higher regard than this WFT squad he’s going against this week. Pair him with just about anyone from Giovani Bernard $5500, Tee Higgins $5900, the massively underpriced Tyler Boyd $5600, or even near Minimum AJ Green $3600.
Boyd has seen 6 or more targets in every game this year. He’s paid off this salary and then some 5 times this year and only recently struggling against the Steelers and Ravens.
Higgins is another guy that’s seen massive targets. Seeing 8 or 9 targets each game with few exceptions, he’s had 4 times w/ TD’s and has GPP winning upside in many of those games.
Green’s price is due to the up and down target share. But he has seen 3 games w/ double-digit targets. If this ends up being one of those weeks he’s easily going to pay off this salary. He has yet to find the end zone and adding one of those to his score sheet would be the frosting on the cupcake!
The Bengals defense is just bad. They’re easily one of the better teams to target. This is in large part why their offense is so good for fantasy. They’re always playing catch up. In this game Alex Smith $5300 isn’t a place I’m looking. Even playing 88 snaps and dropping back 55 times last week he still only scored 19 FPTS. It’s hard to a imagine a more optimal situation than that. I do however have some interest in JD McKissic’s $5200 given his insane target share from smith. In the two games with Smith as a starter, he’s seen 15 and 14 targets. That’s in addition to the 8 he saw when Smith came on in relief against the Ravens. The crazy thing is that half of these targets go incomplete. If we saw a 75% catch rate McKissic has GPP winning capability.
The other choice and most obvious play in the game is Terry McLaurin $6900. With 7 catches in each of his last four games, you can’t go wrong with Terry. His price is starting to climb but he’s exhibited a strong and steady floor and is really one of the only real options in this offense. Nothing wrong with Logan Thomas $3300, but we say that every week. (He was in the milly maker winning lineup last week… just saying.)
Other guys and 1 offs that I like:
QB:
Justin Herbert $6800
Deshaun Watson $6500
Phillip Walker $4800
RB:
Miles Sanders $6900
Damien Harris $5700 or Rex Burkhead $4600
WR:
Keenan Allen $7400
Brandin Cooks $5200
Robby Anderson $6000
Davante Adams $8600
TE:
TJ Hockenson $4200
Mark Andrews $4900
Austin Hooper $3900
Defense:
Miami Dolphins $3400
Denver Broncos $2400