by: Chris Emrick
Yesterday was a strange day, I think we can all agree on that. I find it odd that defenses have been fairly flat in scoring. We just haven’t seen many defensive touchdowns, at least on defenses that were deemed playable. Even the Jags with their return TD weren’t one of the higher scoring units at that position. The tight end position was a disaster, and we saw the Cardinals/Bills yet again put up some monster scores. Do you know who didn’t put up a monster score? Anyone on the Seahawks as they were stuffed by a Ram’s defense that Jonny Danger tried to tell us about. We mocked him and rightfully so. However, he got the last laugh and was even able to secure a second-place finish in the seasonal league….. with a score of 139. The Eagles had every running back score a touchdown except Miles Sanders, and the winning SNF showdown lineup had Willie Snead in the Captain slot. With all the injuries in this MNF tilt, we might be tilting our heads off. (Don’t worry, TNF looks juicy!)
Vikings @ Bears +3.5
Bears
This is yet another slate where we have to wait a bit for some injury news before making lineups. The Bears will be without David Montgomery and if that didn’t create enough of a mess, Allen Robinson is questionable. If he were to miss this game Jimmy Graham becomes the highest-priced skill position player…. yuck.
This isn’t the Minnesota defense of years past. This unit isn’t stopping anyone. Allowing the third-most points to QB’s and WR’s alike, and not so distant 9th when it comes to running backs. The DVOA numbers are a bit better as we dig deeper, but nothing more than a league-average unit at best. The problem is that Chicago is 21st in QB points scored, 28th in RB, and 10th in WR. This of course is when they’re at full strength.
One way to approach this game is just to look for the raw points. If we assume that the Vikings do win and this is close a 4-2 or 3-3 approach seems like it’s going to be optimal. If you take 4-2 approach I think the obvious plays on the Bears would be a Nick Foles / Allen Robinson stack. This tandem becomes much easier to play when you do the 3-3, it gives you the option of throwing in some value that might have an increased role tonight.
Darnell Mooney $6600- Averaging 7 targets a game over the last 6 and playing 90%+ of the snaps we have a nice pivot to Robinson or compliment in the three-man stack. His price isn’t super cheap, but it’s not expensive either. He’s in a fantastic spot tonight.
Cordelle Patterson $5200- One of Danger’s all-time favorite players Patterson becomes super interesting tonight in certain situations. His appeal is that he gets work as a running back to go with his pass-catching abilities. To be fair both are so limited that even when they’re combined it’s hard to find value at almost any price. Without Montgomery it’s fair to take the mental leap and say that he might be more involved. The next question is will he be involved enough? An interesting correlation that you could make with Patterson is that if you put the Bears defense there’s always a chance that he or Mooney return a kick. You get double the points and that’s always fun.
Ryan Nall $6200- I’m going to steer clear on Nall here. The price is just a bit too high for me. I suspect this will be a 4 headed RBBC w/ Miller/Nall/Pierce/Patterson. As such, I’d prefer the cheaper options.
Lamar Miller $200- He’s 200 dollars, that’s it. Lamar Miller probably isn’t as good as he used to be. He wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire when we last saw him either. So I’m not expecting much, but in a crunch, you won’t need much. He makes a lot of the lineups w/ Cook/Arob work, so there’s that.
Artavis Pierce $1800- The price is a bit higher than Miller, but it’s still low enough that it’s worth considering. We have no idea who’s going to get the HVT in the Green Zone, but if it’s Pierce and he can score you’re in good shape. For what it’s worth Pierce is 5’11 207, Miller about the same, with Ryan Nall being the larger back at 6’2 240.
Vikings
The approach you have here with the Vikings should be pretty simple. It’s roster Dalvin Cook and make it work right? There’s merit of course in fading him and trying to get that leverage in case he has a bad game or gets hurt. In the latter scenario, you’re probably playing Mattison, who I think is completely playable even w/ Cook on your roster.
Cook $13,600- The price tag, the ownership, the workload, it all makes for a difficult decision. There isn’t a wrong answer, but if I’m only making one line up I’ll try and get different elsewhere. As I start to get into 5 or more there will be times and narratives I try to play out where he isn’t in the winning lineup.
Adam Thielen $10,000 The easiest of those narratives is that Adam Thielen steals all the touchdowns from Cook. There isn’t any problem with playing these two together, aside from price. However, the negative correlation between Cook and Thielen makes him a prime candidate to CPT your non-cook lineup. Something like a Cousins/Thielen stack. Of course, there is enough value on the other side of the ball that you could try and jam in AROB/COOK/Thielen it’s easier to do than I would have thought.
Mattison $2000– There are two ways you can approach Mattison if you want to roster him. The aforementioned hope Cook gets injured play, or simply that he steals some touches at the end of the drive and scores a touchdown. It’s possible as he sees 6-12 touches a game, a little pass work, and a fair amount of activity in the Red Zone.
Beebe $1000 – A cheap option w/ Irv Smith out that may get some additional targets
Conklin $600- See above. The Vikings run a lot of 2 TE formations. With Smith out Conklin looks to get added snap work and possibly a few balls are thrown his way.
Rudolph $3400- Maybe Conklin gets additional playtime, but Rudolph gets the targets? He hasn’t seen more than 4 targets all year, so you’re asking a lot for a guy at this price.
Closing
If I’m trying to be different I’m probably building a lot of my lineups around a shoot out. I don’t think that’s the likeliest scenario, but something w/ Mooney and Thielen or Jefferson. My goal on that set of lineups will be how does this score the most points WITHOUT Dalvin Cook. The other will be how does this score the most points with. I expect his ownership to be sky high, and rightfully so. Anything could happen though.