Saturday and Sunday
This weekend features a two-game slate on Saturday and a two-game slate on Sunday. DK has a full four-game slate. Last weekend, with three-game slates, we treated it as if it were a single-game slate. The same this week, but even more so.
The public will go to the most obvious choices this weekend – you’ll see players with greater than 50% ownership, then other players with 5 to 10%. We need some of those 5 to 10% players if we want a chance to win the big one. Sure, we could go with all the popular plays and win the big one while splitting first place with 1,000 others, but that’s not what we’re here for.
The other way to tackle a slate like this is to choose an unpopular game script and build your lineup around it. Just imagine last week if the first two games were duds and the Browns jumped out to a huge lead against the Steelers! Well, that’s exactly what happened and the lineup that stacked the Browns and Steelers game won.
So this week we’re targeting two lineup types:
- Balanced – some popular plays, mixing in some low-owned plays
- Unpopular game script
For Saturday only:
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will be the popular QB options; Cam Akers and Aaron Jones will be the popular RB options. What does that mean for us? Aaron Rodgers time. And, of course, the most popular WR is going to be Davante Adams. The rushing ability of Allen and Jackson mean the QB with the most popular WR – by far – is only going to be the third most popular QB. We’re looking for leverage; we’re looking to go against the grain. We’re already going Rodgers, so now let’s fade Adams. No one is scared of Ramsey’s coverage after Metcalf’s game last week, so people are ignoring that there is greater than average bust potential for Adams. Just imagine if 60% of the field has Adams, but Scantling and Tonyan get all the TDs? Or maybe Scantling and Lazard. Do I think Adams will bust? No, but it’s the tournament-winning move.
If you want to get even more leverage, you can go with a Goff stack. Maybe you don’t want to play Aaron Jones in hopes of the Packers building a lead and Goff having to throw to catch up. If you stack up Woods and Kupp you’ll be fading either Adams or Diggs and will give your lineup a lot of leverage. Because there are some very clear chalk options, you actually don’t have to go too wild picking low-owned players. A Rodgers build without Adams or a Goff + Woods + Kupp build will get you there.
Some other leverage spots you can target. If fading Diggs, look to John Brown. If fading Jackson and Dobbins, look to Gus Edwards. Or if you want to play Jackson at QB, just like last week, you can target one of his super low-owned WRs like Boykin, Snead, or Bryant. We saw a Dawson Knox score last week and he should low-owned again this week. The Rams TEs should be low-owned as well.
For DEF, take a wild guess. You probably don’t want to play the DEF against your starting QB, but you can’t really avoid playing some offensive players against your DEF. You’re really hoping for some turnovers and scores, rather than a shutout. You can have a high-scoring QB or team that still throws a pick-six. See what fits and cross your fingers. Unless…
You’re building your unpopular game stack lineup. Maybe you think the Rams DEF dominates the Packers. Stack up Akers + Rams and then load up on chalk from the other game. Maybe the chalkiest QB, Allen, is a bust against the Ravens. Play Dobbins + Ravens. Or, even better, Edwards + Ravens. These are lottery ticket lineups. They probably won’t win, but if they do, you’ll leap-frog the field. Hey, the Browns won a playoff game, anything is possible!
Sunday and the four-game slate:
Same concept as above. With four games, you can play more of the chalk as long as you have a unique build, either through roster construction or having a couple low-owned players. Maybe you’re going Emmanuel Sanders rather than Michael Thomas. Maybe you think the NO/TB game will be a low-scoring defensive battle so you fade Alvin Kamara. Maybe you think the Browns shock the world (again?) and beat the Chiefs. Maybe you think Kareem Hunt gets a revenge game = even better if you think the Chiefs dominate the Browns leaving Hunt to get more work than Chubb.
For me, I’ll be shying away from the NO/TB game more than most. I may even rollout the Saints DEF as a way to get some unique exposure to that game. That will allow me to take some of the chalkier options, like Josh Allen or Mahomes, with my preference being Mahomes.
Going to the four-game slate opens up a lot more TE options – Kelce, Gronk, Cook, Hooper. Kelce will obviously be the most popular, but the rest should be spread out enough that you can take anyone without worrying about ownership too much.
So for my four-game slates, I’m focusing on a Mahomes + Kelce + Hunt core and probably adding Saints DEF. Then I’ll mix in some chalk and low-owned options as salary allows. Lazard stands out as a pivot from Adams. Or if you want to go with a Mahomes + Hill instead of Kelce you can throw in Tonyan instead of Adams.
On the two-game Sunday slate, I’m sticking to Mahomes but am going to stack Chubb and Hunt as a way to get a little different from all the Kamara ownership. Outside of one or two pieces, I’m going to assume a low-scoring disappointment from the NO/TB game and build my lineups to match. To get different, may even go with a two-TE build, with Gronk/Cook and Kelce.
Good luck.
