By Chris Emrick
What looked like it was going to be a fun and interesting 3 game slate has now turned into a less fun 2 game slate. There are still advantages and leverage that can be found but with a reduced amount of games and options those edges become harder to find.
Houston @ Detroit (+2.5) O/U 51
Full disclosure that I’m writing this part of the article on Tuesday night. Most sites haven’t posted their ownership projections and thus I just have to trust my own for the purposes of this breakdown. I may try and update it if this takes me into tomorrow to fully write, which I believe it will. The highest total on the slate is often a spot we want to attack and I think this fits the bill. The Texans who will command massive ownership in every position come in to play a bad Detroit team that hopefully is on the verge of firing its coach. Detroit is bad at defending the pass, their bad at defending the run, they can’t get to the Quarterback and they’re going to give up some points.
Houston
Deshaun Watson ($7400)
Not only is he the most expensive Quarterback on the slate, but he’s also the most expensive player on the entire slate. The pricing is pretty loose for these games making almost any combination possible. I’d be utterly shocked if he didn’t have the highest ownership at his position given the way other players are priced. The Lions have given up 19 or more points to every Quarterback that they’ve faced this year. The lone exception being this past week when going against someone making their first NFL start. Watson to his credit has gone over 21 points in all but three games (Pitt, Bal, Clev) two of those were against top defenses and one in terrible weather conditions. With a median projection well over 3x and a ceiling of 5x that seems very attainable he deserves the ownership that’s sure to find him.
Duke Johnson ($5700)
It’s too bad that David Johnson isn’t available to enact revenge against the team that in some ways derailed his career. A few years ago it was week 1 and the Cardinals were facing off against the Detroit Lions and in that game David Johnson broke his wrist. It’s the same season he wa the consensus #1 pick in fantasy and broke so many hearts like Barkley and CMC after him. I’m sure there’s no grudge, but hell I remember it. So maybe he does as well. In terms of Duke, he’s been largely ineffective in every aspect of the game. Producing nothing on the ground and little in the air. I expect the wretched Lions run defense will draw some ownership in his direction as people tend to cling to the handful of fantastic runs that he had as a Brown in limited duty. Yet despite the mass appeal from the fantasy community. He’s never been given a feature role. Until now that is, and from the looks of it, the coaching staff in Cleveland and the one in Houston may have been correct. He just isn’t built to be the feature back. The other factor that’s going against Duke is how little the Texans actually run the ball. They rank 30th in rush% with only 31.76% of their plays being as such. Some of those go-to Watson and this only further makes the case to avoid Duke.
Will Fuller ($6400)
If there has been a bright spot in the Detroit defense it’s been their ability to limit short completions. That really doesn’t do much for a defense but is worth noting because Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks both have above average ADOT’s. The metric I just cited for the Lions is in regards to completions of 10 yards or less. Fuller has an ADOT of 11.7. The pricing on Fuller versus Cooks gives you a clear advantage from an ownership situation to go towards Fuller. The pricing isn’t an issue this week, but people will likely go to the cheaper option given that they have similar market share over the last three weeks. Fuller with 21 Targets to Cooks 22. The other factor for me is that Fuller has 4 100yard games this year and Cooks just 1. (*It appears Fuller will be the higher owned of the two. This is surprises but has me lean towards Cooks.*)
Brandin Cooks ($5300)
Don’t get me wrong, I love cooks as a play. I think you can even play the two WR’s together and feel good. The angle for me on a lot of these teams that really have two “No 1’s” is to go where the ownership isn’t. The leverage from that can be the differentiation that you need in large-field tournaments. Cooks like Fuller has an average ADOT above 10, at 10.6
Keke Coutee ($3400)
There isn’t much to say about this. Coutee has some elite speed and can stretch a defense. Except they rarely ask him to do that from the slot. Even though that’s a spot that he can do that offers something that a lot of slot receivers can’t. Maybe one day we’ll get to see it, I doubt that day is this Thursday. The case for Coutee is simply that with Cobb out Coutee played 35/61 snaps. That should provide one of the most pass-happy offenses in the league a few shots to pay off his near-minimum salary.
Jordan Atkins ($2900) / Darren Fells ($2700)
Take your pick. These guys have split snaps when both are healthy. There isn’t any rhyme or reason that I can find as to which will get the larger share of the targets. The public will be on Atkins heavily given his last game.
Detroit
Matt Stafford ($5800)
Coming off an awful performance against the Panthers and having the thumb injury lingering over him. I had originally believe that we’d see a reduced rate of ownership on Stafford. However, it appears the field is a bit sharper than I expected. Either that or there just isn’t a lot of interest in playing Dalton/Smith… which I totally understand. In this case your decision is whether you want to be above or below the field on this position. Watson is coming in near 60% and Stafford at 25%.
D’Andre Swift ($6500)
The Texans have been awful against the run, like really bad. Giving up over 30 points to the position 5 times this season, 40 and 50 both once apiece. This looks like a prime spot for Swift to smash having not played last week due to a concussion. He’ll be the most rested and least beat up back on the roster on top of being the most talented.
Without Golladay, the rest of the Detroit offense doesn’t have a clear stud that we can look at to complete our stack with Stafford. TJ Hockenson ($4700) and Marvin Jones ($5500) are the likely first options with Marvin Hall ($3900) and Danny Amendola ($3700) following them from a distance. With this slate now only two games we need to get a bit more creative to find leverage. This Lions offense for me was the spot I was going to do that. Given the news it now makes me think of different combinations and how each of those said combinations work within themselves. If Swift is going to be mega chalk, how can I get leverage off that play? The easiest option would be to play Kerryon Johnson ($4300) or Adrian Peterson ($4700) and hope that they find the end zone. If they score that means Swift isn’t scoring. The only problem I have with that line of thinking is that even if they find the endzone I’m not sure they outscore Swift who I expect to still get the bulk of the attempts within the offense. The better way would be to fade Swift and play some combination of the pass catchers. The thought being that Detroit should be trailing, and thus passing more when behind. Pairing the two Marvin’s with Stafford or even as a run back against Watson helps provide us that leverage that we’re looking for in the match-up.
Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys (-3) O/U 46
These two teams couldn’t be any different if they tried. On one hand, you have the WFT that has thrived this year at times on the back of their defense. On the other, you have a Dallas team that has had to have their offense bail out their defense for being so awful. The first time these two teams played WFT was able to secure the win in convincing fashion shutting out the Cowboys and knocking Dalton out of the game with a brutal hit in the second half. A few weeks have gone by and we’ve seen the Dallas offense start to gel a bit under Andy Dalton ($5600) as he was able to put a respectable stat line of 22/32 for 203 and 3 TD’s against the woe Vikings secondary. Ezekiel Elliot ($6800) looks to be the most popular player on the slate and for good reason. The only real workhorse back in the bunch he should be pretty much a lock in most lineups. I’ve seen projections of 60%, but suspect that number will be closer to 80-85%. Playing Tony Pollard ($4000) or fading this spot in some lineups is a huge leverage spot worth considering. Something going in favor of the trio of Wide Receiving options from Dallas it’s that while WFT’s secondary had been near league-best at limiting fantasy points on the season. They’ve had some malfunctions recently against the Lions and Bengals, not exactly two teams you’d expect to be picking you apart. Amari Cooper ($5700) has the highest projected median score and ownership total. Followed by CeeDee Lamb ($5400). All the more reason I’m going to be looking at my boy Michael Gallup ($3500) only 1 fewer target that Lamb and 2 fewer than Cooper. For the most part, I general weight each of these guys the same. They have similar targets and similar projections. Lamb has the best matchup, Gallup the best price/ownership, and Cooper the highest projection.
The Washington tree is a bit clearer in terms of fantasy assets. Alex Smith ($5400) is who we’ve known him to be. An ultra-conservative game manager that likes to throw it short. One of his biggest strengths in the past was his added mobility. That now gone we’ve seen him unable even in fantastic situations to really show a huge ceiling in terms of fantasy points. 55 passes and 390 yards in a game against the lions and still ended with a mere 19 fantasy points. I’m all for the low owned guy, and I’m all for attacking this Cowboys secondary, but this isn’t the spot. His weapons include a bunch of low ceiling guys like Cam Sims ($3300), Dontrelle Inman ($3100), Isaiah Wright ($3000), and Logan Thomas ($3500). None of these guys have the ceiling that we’re looking for. As much as I like Logan Thomas and think that he’s still a reasonable play on this slate, it’s always been because of positional scarcity. That isn’t the case for the Wide Receivers here. Terry McLaurin ($7000) is the most expensive Wide Receiver on the slate and for good reason, he’s really good. Whereas the other guys mentioned haven’t had more than 6 targets, McLaurin hasn’t had less than 7. Someone has to score some points in this offense and if it comes through the Air most of those yards are going to go through Terry as long as he plays. He does currently have the Q tag on him, which I expect shouldn’t be an issue. JD McKissic ($5100) followed his two massive target games (14,15) by posting 4 targets last game. If that’s the case moving forward he does little more than providing an upside stealing presence for Antonio Gibson ($6000) who has found the end zone in the last 4 games 5 times. The only issue is that without those touchdowns the production isn’t there. Playing 50% of the snaps is a recipe for failure when it comes to fantasy.
All things considered this offense is one that I would want to fade in most situations. But here we are, two games and we have to make some decisions to be different. The Dallas defense has been a prime target to pick on and even though it’s seemed a bit more together recently it’s still bad. I’d be hesitant to load up on WFT players, but picking the right one or two is likely needed to take down this slate.
