Thursday Night NFL Showdown! 11/19
by: Jonny Danger
Getting the game script right is the key to locking down single game slates in Showdown Mode. You have to tell yourself the story of the game and then let the players work themselves out. Of course there are always multiple ways games can pan out so there are not many “Wrong Plays”, what you want to be avoiding are “Wrong Builds”. Just make sure whatever narrative you build to make the lineup correlates and be conscious of the style of contest you entered.
Let’s look at contest selection. There is a stark difference in how you approach a 50/50 style cash game, single entry, or multi entry events. If you are trying for cash games you want the highest possible combined floor. Single entry you need to be right on how the game flow plays out and have a part of the highest scoring side or group of players. For Multi-entry you are going to need to correlate a bunch of players in weird or one off situations that are maybe a bit out there but not totally random. In all circumstances don’t get cute just to be cute. It might work one time but it just won’t be winning ROI for you.
Looking at Vegas to get an idea on where the betting public thinks the game will go is always a good step to get a feeling for the story of the game.
Cardinals (57)
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Seattle (-3)
Looking for a shootout tonight with 2 of the most high flying offenses in the league. Russ coming off his worst game, Hyde healthy, and Lockett bruised up. This could be the week Pete Carrol gets back to smash mouth football. Seattle’s defense is not at all good enough to hold back Kyler and crew so the only way they can slow them down is run the crap out of the ball. Metcalf is a beast and certainly can over power even the shadow of a guy like Peterson. With how Lockett blew up last game these teams met, I think massive ownership will go his way more than DK if he isn’t ruled out. Watch ownership… IF the field is overly on Lockett then the DK play is the leverage spot. Kyler is just chucking. You can load him up with any number of guys… I think both sides’ kickers are safe, so pick your favorites and go.
As you can see you tell yourself a story and build your entry accordingly.
Here are my favorite players to target.
ARI
Kyler/Kirk/Hopkins/Chase/Gonzalez/Fitz/Isabella/Arnold(the other 2 TEs are questionable)
I might eat these words but I am out on Drake. Chase is the better fit for the game script. I also think the RBs will go under owned so I love being overweight on Chase Edmonds tonight.
Kyler is going to be in 19 of 20 builds for me. He is the guy with the clearest path to 40 points in the field. Don’t get cute.
Kirk is my preferred WR tonight between him and Nuke. Seattle can’t hold the deep field. Kirk is a big play specialist and his price is $3,400 cheaper than Hopkins. I want to try to get both Russ and Kyler in most of my builds so Hopkins is tougher to fit. Kirk is a near LOCK for me.
Hopkins obviously is a complete stud, and I will have a good chunk of him. You really can’t be wrong having him ready. Especially in cash builds.
Chase Edmonds had a massive game last time they matched up even without a TD. I think he is going underlooked. Leverage is key in these games. His ceiling is probably solidly in the top 3-4 plays tonight if he stays as involved as he was the last time they played. Drake being back and hitting 100 yards last week will get attention and Chase is cheaper.
My favorite builds so far are both QBs and both Kickers lol.. (this won’t hold up before game time) I am good with both or either kickers.
The other 3 guys can be slipped into builds 1 at a time as you need the salary relief. The TE’s are banged up so look for even a shot for more 4 WR sets and a boost to Isabella
Seattle
Wilson/Carson(if he plays)/Metcalf/Lockett/Hyde/Moore/Myers/Swain/Dissly
Wilson is most likely to keep chucking, but the bum of a game last week and Carrols preference to run the ball might come back to bite him here. Though I still think only Kyler outscores him, if I have to play one of them more it will be Kyler. I still like finding every way I can to put them both in though.
Carson is a stud if he plays. I’m thinking he won’t. In that case I LOVE Hyde tonight. The price is a bargain and the game script might favor him if they are able to keep the ARI offense off the field.
Metcalf was shut down last week by getting locked up by Ramsey and seeing double teams all night. Arizona also did that to him last time they played with double teams and Peterson… All this adds up Lockett (if he plays) being higher owned and the Leverage coming back to the way of DK. Hard to look past the beating Lockett put on the cardinals last matchup but I also can imagine the ARI coaching staff remembers too…
Lockett is fine of course but I am worried about the injury even if he plays. I certainly will mix him in if he starts but I like DK more and even a pivot to David Moore.
Moore consistently is the #3 in this offense getting 3-6 targets and this game with Lockett and Carson out or banged up should be towards the higher end of that. He is my favorite contrarian Capt play…
If Lockett and Carson are out, look for the TE’s to get more involved, my favorite of the trio tonight is Dissly. Also look for Swaim to get some extra looks if Lockett is out, but only use sparingly.
My Favorite targets for CPT tonight in order
Kirk
Hyde/Moore (if their counterparts are out)
Kyler
Carson (if he plays)
DK
Wilson
I gotta have Russ and Kyler in as much as I can and never a lineup without at least 1.
I love how things look when I start with Kirk(CPT)/Kyler/Isabella
Hyde/Wilson/Myers give me a great look in Seattle heavy builds
Trying to go most lineups 4/2 and 2/4 builds
Not afraid to drop one or the other Defense in a small number of builds. Getting scored on isn’t as much of a problem if sacks and turnovers build up. More plays in fast paced games lead to more of those opportunities…
Good luck everyone!
