By Jonny Danger
Tipsy Picks Playoff Week 1
Draft Kings Saturday 3 Game Slate.
From cash games to GPP 3 game slates are a different game than full sized ones. Chalk will be centralized and you aren’t really trying to avoid it in most cases. You HAVE to have the top scoring guys but you also need to find the gem that goes over-looked to go with them.
IND @ BUF (-6) 51.5
There is good chalk and bad chalk. This game represents both here.
I have touted Jonathan Taylor for the last month or so predicting how good he has looked and it has shown up well. At 55% projected ownership though I just can’t see myself stomaching much of him in my 3 game lineups. The Colts are implied for only 22 points against Buffalo who is predicted to win by a TD. I see more scenarios that Buffalo gets up quickly and Indy abandons the power run game then I do Indy’s overhyped Defense slowing down Allen and gang. Taylor not only doesn’t hit value but his salary sinks your ability to focus on higher upside and plays in better predicted game flow spots.
Josh Allen without the help of any true running game from his 2 backs has become a massive focal point of fantasy points. Even as the highest played QB of the six available at 31% I am all over it. No other QB on the board has the raw point potential or as high of a floor in my mind. If Diggs and Beasley are slightly hampered that might only open up more room for points on the ground. I’m building my Cash lineups around Allen and will be overweight on the 31% ownership in my GPPs.
If you are going Allen there are zero ways to skip playing Stephon Diggs. The two are capable of slate breaking numbers that can’t be ignored. Even as a standalone Diggs points upside outweigh the benefit of fading his chalk. Eat it up, even at 40% you won’t win a dime if he goes off and isn’t on your roster. As long as he is healthy he is in. Massive entry GPPs I will build a good amount without him but I will still be heavier than that 40% ownership. He is officially questionable and the more muddy that is the more I want of him. I don’t see any way he really misses this game or fails to make an impact.
Cole Beasley is an interesting play as his injury is keeping his ownership at bay. If he suits up I am sure there will be a bump but as it stands he is basically unowned. Obviously there is big risk here and you need to be prepared to swap him out if news comes that he is out.
When it comes to the rest of the WR options in Buffalo I prefer John Brown to see more action especially if they don’t have a 100% Diggs and Beasley. Gabriel Davis is a more favorable target than Isaiah Mackenzie as it would be hard to repeat the performance from last week for Mac.
The ones I am most interested in from the Colts are Nyheim Hines, Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal. I completely understand that the stats say the Bills are bad against the run, and I agree! But when the Bills get up and keep the pace of play flying, there is no way the Colts can plod along with Taylor and at 55% I just can’t play him in a negative game script as the most likely outcome. But I still want a part of a ground attack against the Bills. Hines has a handful of big games and his salary let’s me get to the pieces I want elsewhere. Same with Pittman and Pascal at $3500 and $3700 their upside might be the best of any WR on the slate in points per salary. Of the two I prefer Pascal. I believe the Bills will shut out TY Hilton and force the ball other places. Pascal is an excellent run back candidate for a Bills stack and getting him at under 3% owned is huge in a 3 game slate.
LAR @ SEA (-3.5) 42.5
I feel there is another Seattle let down game coming. I look at the home team with the better coach and more experience and it just doesn’t jump off the page at me. For betting I like the Rams to win so give me the +3.5 and the money line!
Ramsey is in DK Metcalf’s head and he already seems to be playing frustrated, that is not a combination I want to invest in. I won’t ignore his big game potential when I’m building 20+ lineups but I am going to be well under his 35% projections.
If you are playing any Seattle guy that isn’t Russ, I think the play is Tyler Lockett. Even in a low scoring dud of a game he could tally 7-9 catches for 50-60 yards and that is enough production to keep him interesting and a TD takes him easily to value.
Russell Wilson is always in play, and if they are getting beat he will be the one to force his will on the game to keep them in it. Carson has been beat up and ineffective for the most part and I could see scrambling putting up a good number of Russ’s points this week. I’m pretty much exclusively playing Allen with a mix of Rivers in Saturday’s slate so I won;t play much Russ but won’t blame you if you go that route.
For the Rams I am all about Cam Akers this week. He has the skills and matchup to be the #1 scoring RB this week and is only the 5th most expensive. He will certainly be chalk but at $5,100 and questions marks at QB no matter which one suits up he is a lock for me.
As for the WR’s I like Cooper Kupp more than Woods, though both are in good spots if Goff gets back on the field. Kupp at under 20% in this kind of field seems like a spot I want to be heavy on, and I think he gets more of the quick shots from a backup QB if it ends up being Wolford in. Seattle has been better of late than their reputation on the year defensively so I am probably not going to be heavily invested here beyond Akers.
TBB (-8) @ WSH 44.5
Maybe my colleagues will laugh at me but I really kinda love the home team with the points. WSH is going to lose this game. I’m not too worried about that… but they haven’t lost by more than 8 points since week 5. Their defense is stout, they get in the QB’s face, and they grind that clock with a heavy run game and short passing game. Since week 6 they have only given up more than 20 points 2 times. This has the potential of not only being closer than people think but staying under that 44.5 point total.
I like both the Bucs DEF and the WSH DEF as my plays this week as I think its the slowest lowest scoring games. Other than a bit of Rams DEF this is were all my defensive ownership will concentrate. As such I am not on many plays from the offense.
It wouldn’t be an article from the D4U crew if we didn’t recommend Logan Thomas and I won’t break that trend today. He is my outright lock of the week for TE sitting in the best position but also chalky chalk chalk… If you want to stray from there, Gronk, Knox, and either Burton or Doyle from Indy are the only places I’m looking.
I also don’t mind Terry McLaurin or Chris Godwin for other WR’s here to mix it up from other top options but I don’t want to invest big in this game personally. If you are looking at a guy like Nyheim Hines but want a bit more safety and somehow even less owned I REALLY like J.D. McKissic as your salary saver in a game he might get 10 points just in receptions. If you want another deep salary saver Cam Sims has a really nice matchup at bottom pricing.
